Uneven demographic processes in Russia: regional imbalances and their impact on socio-economic development

   The relevance of the study is due to the acute demographic challenges in the Russian Federation: population decline, low birth rate and aging. Despite migration and government programs, the natural decline persists, threatening the economy and social stability. An analysis of trends for 2025 is necessary to develop effective policies.

   The purpose is a comprehensive analysis of demographic processes, identification of trends and assessment of government support measures.

   Objectives: to study the dynamics of fertility, mortality, natural growth; regional differentiation; the impact of aging; analysis of the National Project "Long and active life".

   Methodology. Methods: Rosstat statistics (2015-2024), forecasts for 2025, comparative, structural and logical analysis and grouping to assess regional inequality.

   Results. The population is declining (-940 thousand in 2025), the total birth rate is 1.39 (below the reproduction level). Regional differences are significant: the high birth rate is in the North Caucasus, and the crisis is in Central Russia. Life expectancy is increasing (73.2 years), but the gap between the sexes is ~10 years. Migration compensates for the loss, but does not solve the problem of reproduction. Morbidity is increasing, and risks remain in motherhood and childhood.

   Conclusions. The demographic situation requires a systematic, differentiated approach. Achieving the goals of the national project is possible only by eliminating key problems such as inequality in healthcare and staff shortages. Without drastic measures to increase fertility and improve health (especially for men), socio-economic imbalances will deepen.

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