Scenario management of socio-economic development of regions taking into account pendulum labor migration.

Relevance. Regions are the main structural elements of the economic system and play an important role in the overall development of the country. A scenario approach based on the analysis of many factors and their interrelations makes it possible to forecast various scenarios and determine the most optimal ways to achieve goals. This method becomes especially relevant in the conditions of high uncertainty and dynamism of the external environment, typical of the modern economy. Continuous assessment and forecasting of the socio-economic development of regions are an important tool for developing effective development strategies, decision-making and determining priority areas of activity, as they allow us to determine the current state and forecast future development dynamics, taking into account labor migration of the population. The purpose to conduct a comprehensive study of the development of scenario modeling of the regional socio-economic system based on the analysis of strategic development prospects, taking into account the pendulum labor migration. Objectives: to identify the features of the scenario approach to the management of the regional socio-economic system; calculate the attractiveness of the centers of attraction of pendulum labor migration among the  regions of the Central Federal District based on the adapted formula of the Reilly-Converse gravity model; to determine the promising centers of economic growth of the regions and the directions for adjusting their development scenarios. Methodology. The study is based on the use of a scenario approach to managing the regional socio-economic system, and includes methods of economic, statistical and graphical analysis. Results. The basics of the scenario approach to managing the socio-economic development of regions are considered, the influence of promising centers of economic growth on other regions of the Central Federal District is analyzed, the influence of pendulum labor migration on neighboring regions is determined, as well as the main directions for adjusting the scenarios of strategic development of regions. Conclusions. The article provides a comprehensive analysis of the degree of attraction of labor migrants between the regions of the Central Federal District, the main directions for adjusting the scenarios of strategic development aimed at maintaining and strengthening the economic potential of key regions, taking into account pendulum labor migration are identified.

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