Difficulties in Strategizing the Development of the Russian Federation’s Regions Under the Sanctions of 2022

   Relevance. Due to the involvement of our country and its regions in international economic processes, the implementation of any restrictive measures entails uncertainty and unexpected shocks for all parties. However, the Russian economy is now much more resilient to any shocks than it was in 2014, when the most extensive package of sanctions in the history of modern Russia was adopted.
   The purpose of the study is to analyze the impact of the new restrictive measures on the implementation of strategies of the socio-economic development of the Russian Federation’s regions and justify the need of making adjustments.
   Objectives: to study data on the amount of investment in fixed capital in the first quarter of 2022, to analyze the dynamics of the index of industrial production in the Russian Federation, to assess the significance of the deviation of the actual index from the target indicator stated in the strategies of socio-economic development of the regions.
   Methodology. The following indicators were analyzed: the amount of investment in fixed capital in the Russian Federation, the index of industrial production in the Russian Federation and in the regions. To analyze the consistency of target indicators, the strategies of socio-economic development of 85 regions of the Russian Federation were studied. To assess the performance of the scenario-based approach in the strategy, the comparison of the target and actual values of the indicators was made.
   Results. The researchers noted the significant impact of the sanctions introduced in 2014 on the regional economy. Based on the data on the amount of investment in fixed assets in the first quarter of 2022, it is impossible to conclude that there is a similar trend now. However, there is a sharp drop in the index of industrial production in most regions of the Russian Federation. This indicator is used as a target indicator in the strategies of many regions in the Russian Federation.
   Conclusions. The scenario approach cannot always fully take into account some significant shocks. Therefore, timely adjustment of strategies is necessary in such cases.

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