Assessment of the real sector of the national economy economic security level

Relevance. In the current context, anti-Russian sanctions are a key factor determining the dynamics of the Russian economy and its level of economic security, leading to increased attention to assessing their impact. In this context, an in-depth analysis of the impact of sanctions on the economic security of the real sector of the economy, which serves as the foundation for achieving stability and sustainability of the national economy as a whole, is required.
The purpose of the study is develop a methodology for assessing the level of economic security of the real sector of the national economy.
Objectives: analyze the mechanism by which sanctions influence the Russian economy; provide a scientific basis for the key stages of the methodology for assessing the level of economic security of the real sector of the national economy; test this methodology using data for 2011‒2024; and provide a meaningful interpretation of the results.
Methods. Quantitative and qualitative, monographic and retrospective analysis, methods for comparing economic phenomena and processes, graphical and matrix modeling, the index method, and scenario and systems approach tools were used.
Results. The real sector of the economy is the core of the country's economy, determining its resilience to sanctions. Therefore, ensuring the economic security of the real sector in the face of increasing sanctions pressure is a priority. To address this, this paper presents a scientifically substantiated methodology for assessing the level of economic security of the real sector of the national economy. This methodology consists of a sequentially implemented set of five stages. This methodology is based on publicly available Rosstat data on the dynamics of gross value added and the share of the real sector in the national economy. A matrix model for interpreting the results obtained using the developed methodology is proposed. The theoretical propositions of the study advance the theory of economic security.
Conclusions. The authors' methodology for assessing the level of economic security of the real sector of the national economy under sanctions, based on available statistical data, allows not only to model the situation and assess the state of economic security, but also to develop a scientifically sound forecast of short-term changes in the situation, considering recommended measures to ensure economic security. The applied findings of the study may be useful to government officials and the management of enterprises in the real sector of the economy when substantiating measures and developing strategies and programs to strengthen economic security under sanctions.

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