Inflation as a Manifestation of Macroeconomic Instability: Theory and Russian Practice

   Relevance. Inflation indicators in the national economy are one of the key indicators of the macroeconomic state and have a significant impact on its structural proportions, the amount of income, the structure and volume of consumption, and other parameters of socio-economic development. The crises of non-economic and economic nature that have been taking place in the world over the past few years lead to obvious inflationary consequences. In the national economy, these processes are aggravated under the influence of sanctions pressure and a significant burden on the budget due to the conduct of a special military operation.
   The purpose is to study the features of inflation as a form of manifestation of macroeconomic instability in the conditions of the modern Russian economy.
   Objectives: the theoretical foundations of inflation management as a manifestation of macroeconomic instability are considered; factors affecting inflation in the Russian economy are determined; mathematical models of the dependence of the price index for goods and services on individual factors are formed; on official statistical data using the tools of correlation and regression analysis.
   Methodology. The main methods are statistical analysis of data series, methods of mathematical modeling in economics, including the method of correlation and regression analysis for constructing linear regression models with one and several variables.
   Results. The causes of inflation and its management methods in Russia correspond to both Keynesian and monetary theories of economic thought. The proposed model of multiple linear regression reflects the dependence of the index of prices for goods and services on the key rate and the exchange rate of the US dollar to the Russian ruble, explains more than 80% of the variability of this index and can be used to predict the level of inflation and assess the effectiveness of measures of state regulation of inflationary processes based on currency restrictions and key rate management.
   Conclusions. The theoretical views of both Keynesians and monetarists find their empirical confirmation in the Russian economy. The use of correlation and regression analysis mechanisms makes it possible to develop macroeconomic models of multiple regression, on the basis of which it is possible to effectively manage inflationary processes.

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