Methodology for Predicting Bankruptcy of Enterprises in the Context of the Post-Viral Trend of Economic Transformation

Relevance. The problem of bankruptcy is relevant for enterprises, since in the conditions of the post-viral trend of economic transformation, they are under the threat of a decrease in profitability, the emergence of insolvency, and the onset of bankruptcy. In this regard, the tasks of developing methodological approaches to predicting the probability of bankruptcy are actualized, the result of which will be an assessment of the risk of bankruptcy and the development of directions for ensuring profitability, financial stability and solvency.
The purpose is to substantiation of theoretical and methodological provisions and development of a methodology for predicting bankruptcy of enterprises operating under the conditions of the post-viral trend of economic transformation.
Objectives: to generalize and systematize domestic and foreign practice in terms of methodological approaches to forecasting the financial condition of enterprises from the position of possible bankruptcy; to develop a methodology for predicting the likelihood of bankruptcy, based on assessing the potential for preventing bankruptcy of enterprises operating in the post-viral trend of economic transformation.
Methodology: systemic, dialectical approaches, induction and deduction, analysis and synthesis, comparison, abstract - logical, multifactor forecasting, logical modeling, graphic method, general scientific methods of theoretical generalization.
Results. The authors have developed a methodology for predicting bankruptcy of enterprises, based on determining the potential for preventing bankruptcy using the method of analyzing cash flows in normal conditions and in crisis (emergency) conditions of economic activity, which allows reflecting the impact of each of the activities on the process of forming the aggregate cash flow and cash balance. funds of the enterprise at a specific point in time, and also identify the amount of cash reserves that can be mobilized in the event of force majeure circumstances, in particular, viral pandemics.
Conclusions. The research results obtained by the authors have theoretical and practical significance, since when they are used in the work of enterprises, an integrated approach to the organization and methodology for predicting the probability of bankruptcy of enterprises will be provided, based on assessing the potential for conditions of influence of crisis factors of the external environment.

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