Climate Migration: Trends and Forecasts

Relevance. The article analyzes one of the fastest growing areas of research in the field of climate change, vulnerability and human migration. Attention is focused on the relationship between climate migration and its consequences for the socio-economic development of countries. Climate migration is more than a speculation about the future. Analysts identify climate change as one of the main drivers of migration from developing countries to developed ones. There are disagreements among the world's leading powers in dealing with climate problems and likely scenarios of environmental threats.
The purpose of the study is to identify and analyze the causes, trends and predictions of climate migration. Suggest recommendations for future research on this issue.
Objectives: to highlight a number of topical methodological issues that are being studied by researchers working in the field of climate migration; аnalyze the factors affecting climate migration, conduct a comparative analysis of developing and developed countries in the context of the goal, show possible scenarios for the development of climate migration.
Methodology. The methodological basis was formed by classical and modern theoretical provisions that allow considering the foundations of migration processes in the context of globalization. A comprehensive study of the problem is based on general scientific methods of comparative and systemic analysis, and includes individual case studies, statistical data, reports of international organizations.
Results: identified methodological problems caused by the uncertainty of scientific and managerial approaches, the lack of an international regulatory framework, terminological designation of this phenomenon.
An attempt is made to determine the key role of climatic factors in the decision to migrate. Possible scenarios for the development of climatic migration are presented. Recommendations are given to researchers studying the relationship between climate and migration. Topical approaches reflecting local climatic problems are proposed.
Conclusions. The results of a survey study based on a comparative analysis showed the relationship between climate change and population mobility. It is advisable in choosing a research methodology to focus on issues related to conceptualization, measurement of key indicators or modeling of these relationships.

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