Identification and Scale of the Development of a Price Bubble in the Housing Market

Relevance. Housing costs rose significantly in the housing market during the pandemic. Тhere was a great interest in the price from state regulatory authorities and market participants. Domestic and foreign researchers mainly identify price bubbles. They compare the income of the population, the price of rent and the cost of housing and do not pay attention to calculating the scale of speculative price bubbles. Today in Russia, the study of this problem is relevant.

The purpose of the study was to develop a methodology for identifying speculative price bubbles on the real estate market. It uses the value of the fair value during the period of stability, the simulated fair value and the market value in the conditions of a hype market.

The objectives of the study were to provide a dynamic analysis of the housing market, identify periods of stability of excessive price growth in the market, simulate fair value with stable values of price-forming factors and calculate the size of the price bubble.

Methodology. The research is based on correlation and regression analysis, an index method of information processing.

Results. The percentage sizes of speculative price bubbles were established. The fair price base in the housing market was adopted, a scale for dividing speculative bubbles was developed.

Conclusion. Calculations were made for the housing market in Sochi in 2021, a euphoric price bubble of 54 per cent was calculated. Macroeconomic factors have not changed, so the market price requires special attention from interested parties.

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