The development of Russian-Iranian trade relations in the context of transition to free trade

Relevance. The article examines the development of foreign trade relations between Russia and Iran in the context of transitioning to a free trade regime. The relevance of the topic is driven by the growing importance of economic cooperation between the two countries against the backdrop of geopolitical changes and sanctions pressure from Western states.

The purpose of the study is to identify key trends and factors influencing bilateral trade between the studied countries, as well as the risks associated with Iran's integration into the free trade zone of the Eurasian Economic Union.

The objectives of the research include studying the foreign trade profiles of the two countries, examining the dynamics, structure, and trends of bilateral trade, and identifying the potential for mutual trade between Russia and Iran.

Methodology. The methods used include statistical analysis of time series, calculation and analysis of the export similarity index, and comparative analysis of statistical data on bilateral commodity flows.

The results obtained include the calculation of the export similarity index values for Russia, Iran, and their key trading partners. The index values indicate a high similarity in the exports of Russia and Iran and highlight the risks associated with Iran's integration into the free trade zone of the Eurasian Economic Union due to potential intensification of competition. The analysis of the structure and dynamics of commodity flows showed that the export of goods from Russia to Iran has transformed, with Russian suppliers losing their position in Iran's market of iron, and agricultural products now forming the basis of the export commodity flow. Imports of goods from Iran to Russia also primarily consist of agricultural products. At the same time, there is an observed growth and diversification of imports, facilitated by sanctions isolating both countries from global markets and pushing them towards strengthening bilateral cooperation. The analysis of complementary commodity flows indicates that there is unfulfilled potential for growth in bilateral trade across various industries. Iran's integration into the free trade zone of the Eurasian Economic Union and the removal of trade barriers could serve as a powerful stimulus for the rapid development of trade relations.

The conclusions of the study indicate a slow development of trade relations between Russia and Iran, primarily due to Iran's protectionist policies, currency crisis, low competitiveness of Iranian goods, and underdeveloped infrastructure. However, the intensification of cooperation, including the removal of trade barriers and the development of the "North-South" transport corridor, is contributing to the growth of trade turnover. A significant step has been the establishment of free trade agreements, which have already begun to yield tangible results.

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