Methodology for Evaluating the Effectiveness of Infrastructure Road Projects and its Application to the Regions of the Chernozemye Cluster

   Relevance. The relevance of infrastructure road projects was emphasized by both the President of the Russian Federation V. V. Putin and the Governor of the Kursk region R. V. Starovoit. Large infrastructure road investments require a quantitative valuation of the expected return on them.
   The purpose is to development of a methodology for evaluating the effectiveness of infrastructure road projects and its implementation to the regional centers of the Chernozemye cluster.
   Objectives: adaptation of Newton's gravitational model to regional economic development, taking into account the transport component; estimation of the costs of smoothing roads connecting the regional centers of the cluster "Chernozemye"; assessment of the economic effect of an infrastructure road project in the Black Earth cluster.
   Methodology. The article is prepared within the framework of the positivist paradigm and the adductive approach, methods of economic and mathematical modeling, comparative statics and economic analysis are used. The statistical method was used in the work.
   Results: a methodology for evaluating the effectiveness of infrastructure road investments based on the modification of the gravity model is proposed; the influence of the regional center on the development of the region is shown and the impact coefficients are calculated; the values of the coefficients of attraction between the regional centers of the cluster "Chernozemye" are calculated; the most relevant directions for the alignment of federal roads in the Chernozemye cluster are proposed; the economic effect of the implementation of the infrastructure road project according to the methods of PPP, PS, PI, profitability and payback of the project is determined.
   Conclusions. The application of Newton's gravitational model to the regional economy makes it possible to calculate the coefficients of economic attraction between regional centers. The coefficients of attraction are stable over time and change as a result of innovative development and implementation of infrastructure projects. The road surface scheme in the Chernozemye cluster is not optimal. Smoothing the network of federal roads will allow to obtain a multiplier effect for the development of Kursk, Belgorod, Bryansk, Oryol, Lipetsk and Voronezh regions. The expected profitability of the project will be 5.9%, the payback period of the project in the absence of alternative investment options is 16 years 9 months.

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